Nexus vs. Silo Investment Planning Under Uncertainty

Water, energy, and agricultural infrastructure investments have important inter-relations fulfilling potentially competing objectives. When shaping investment plans, decision makers need to evaluate those interactions the associated uncertainties. We compare planning under uncertainty with an integrated water-energy-food nexus framework sector-centered (silo) frameworks. use WHAT-IF, open-source hydroeconomic support tool a holistic representation of power agriculture sectors. The is applied illustrative synthetic case complex problem in Zambezi River Basin involving reservoirs, hydropower, irrigation, transmission lines plant investments. In case, selects that generate more synergies across frameworks, value impact multiple sectors (like bioenergy, desalinization) are under- or overestimated. Furthermore, identifies risks related uncertainties not linked respective river we find most mainly sensitive parameters their sectors, financial like discount rate, capital costs carbon taxes driving feasibility However, trade-offs between water for irrigation hydropower important; ignoring silo frameworks increases expansion perceived as beneficial by 22% compared considers jointly. Planning expected be particularly when projects can considerably affect current equilibrium.